Power quality - or, simply, the usability of electric power - is a vital concern to many commercial businesses and industries. The proof is a rapidly growing global market for products to correct or improve power quality that will top $11 billion in 2011.  The manufacturers of these products have reason to smile, because the outlook for improvement of the power quality in the U.S. is not very rosy.

Who Cares about Power Quality?

Poor power quality rarely has a financial impact on homeowners, but businesses can lose thousands or millions of dollars due to a few seconds of power that’s out-of-spec.  Imagine a plant churning out thousands of ice cream cones that abruptly shuts down due to a few milliseconds of poor power, and then visualize the mess, waste, and man-hours spent on the cleanup and restart. The problem’s source is clear – electronic devices being deployed everywhere are inherently more sensitive to poor power than the analog or mechanical devices they replace.

The Department of Energy (DOE) forecasts the size of the challenge:

“In the 1980s, electrical load from sensitive electronic equipment, such as chips (computerized systems, appliances and equipment) and automated manufacturing was limited. In the 1990s, chip share grew to roughly 10%. Today, load from chip technologies and automated manufacturing has risen to 40% and the load is expected to increase to more than 60% by 2015.”

Besides the obvious financial ramifications, poor power quality can substantially increase energy consumption and waste generation.

MORE THAN INTERRUPTIONS

Electric power is a function of current, time (frequency) and voltage. Of these three elements, voltage is the rogue variable that nearly always determines power quality.  Common voltage problems include levels that are too high or too low, voltage sags (deep, fast, short-lived voltage drops) and interruptions (the absence of voltage).

THE OUTLOOK FOR POWER QUALITY

In addition to the technical complexities of meeting a growing demand for electricity, business considerations and politics will have a significant impact on the quality of our power in the future

GENERATING CAPACITY AND DEMAND

Projections by the North American Electric Reliability Corp. (NERC) show the demand for electricity outpacing installation of new generating capacity.  Nationally, there is about 13% more generating capacity than the peak summer demand for 2010.  This margin in generating capacity, however, is predicted to fall to 6% by 2016, which will substantially increase the risk of localized power shortages and power quality problems.

Conservation measures, while very important, cannot reverse the upward growth of demand.  The only rational solution to this problem is the addition of more generating capacity – but some emerging renewable energy sources may not be up to the task, as we will discuss later.

TRANSMISSION

The little-appreciated fact about the electric grid is that critical portions of the grid are old and nearing peak transmission capacity. 

In the decade since 2000, a meager 688 miles of new transmission line were added to the existing 211,000 miles of line.  DOE acknowledges this lack of new transmission, “As a result, [electric transmission] system constraints worsen at a time when outages and power quality issues are estimated to cost American business more than $100 billion on average each year.”  DOE then sums up the situation: “Our lights may be on, but systemically, the risks associated with relying on an often overtaxed grid grow in size, scale and number every day.”

The installation of new transmission lines can take a decade or longer, or they can be blocked altogether by right-of-way, environmental or other issues.  This has been and will continue a challenge for all types of electric generation, renewable or otherwise.

POLICY, REGULATION AND INVESTMENT

Government policy and regulations, or the threats of them, directly affect power quality.  Industry respondents to a 2007 NERC survey rated environmental regulations, renewable mandates and long-term investment risk and uncertainty as highly likely to affect grid reliability.  Since this survey, these issues continue to inhibit long-term investment in generation or transmission.

There is also some misconception that the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (“ARRA”, a.k.a. “the stimulus program”) would considerably improve the electrical infrastructure.  Actually, much of DOE’s $36.7B in ARRA funding is slated for energy efficiency and alternative energy programs and the cleanup or upgrade of government facilities with $4B dedicated to defining and designing the SmartGrid. 

The intersection of politics, special interests and technology has often benefited only the very few.  Technological solutions embraced by the free market are often much more sustainable and self-perpetuating.

RENEWABLE ENERGY AND POWER QUALITY

The current push for wind and solar generation is not likely to improve power quality any time soon.  NERC explains:

“… they [wind and solar] are often remotely located, requiring significant transmission links often over challenging terrain. Wind and solar resource variability requires ancillary services such as voltage support, frequency control, increased base-load unit dispatch flexibility, and spinning reserves. In addition, many times their available generating capacity at time of peak is significantly less than their nameplate capacity varying with location.”

Translation: wind and solar, rather than covering increasing demand in the near-term, will add complexity and instability to the grid and increase the cost of generation and transmission.  Grid-scale energy storage systems may make wind and solar more reliable electricity sources, but these are a number of years away.

Certain types of renewable energy provide a predictable quantity of electricity on-demand, such as geothermal and hydro. These are much more compatible with the grid and the support of good power quality. 

THE FUTURE OF POWER QUALITY

Politics, special interests and financial uncertainty in the U.S. will likely delay steps that could improve power quality – and, potentially cause it to degrade.  Rather than chasing headlong into the technology du jour, power quality might be better served by focusing on grid, consumer and investor-friendly renewable energy sources.

We’ll let DOE have the final comment on this:

“…the grid remains our national engine. It continues to offer us among the highest levels of reliability in the world for electric power. Its importance to our economy, our national security, and to the lives of the hundreds of millions it serves cannot be overstated. But we—all of us—have taken this marvelous machine for granted for far too long. As a result, our overburdened grid has begun to fail us more frequently and presents us with substantial risks.”